The first Black woman to lead a major UK political party faces unprecedented challenges as she battles to restore Conservative credibility whilst fending off threats from Reform UK
Kemi Badenoch stands at perhaps the most precarious crossroads in modern Conservative Party history. Nearly a year after making history as the first Black woman to lead a major British political party, the 44-year-old faces a reality that would have been unthinkable just five years ago: the Conservative Party she leads is polling behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
The magnitude of this challenge became starkly apparent at the party’s recent conference in Manchester, where empty seats told a story of decline that echoed far beyond the conference hall. Yet Badenoch remains defiant, insisting there is a “buzz” at the gathering whilst announcing bold new policies designed to recapture public imagination.
From Nigeria to Number 10 Downing Street’s Opposition
Badenoch’s journey to the pinnacle of British politics reads like a testament to Britain’s capacity for social mobility. Born in Wimbledon to Nigerian parents in 1980, her early years were split between Lagos and London. The defining moment came when she was 16, as Nigeria descended into political chaos under military rule. Her father scraped together enough money for a plane ticket and £100 to help his daughter survive in London.
Working at McDonald’s whilst studying part-time A-levels at Phoenix College in Morden, Badenoch embodied the immigrant experience of starting from scratch. She progressed to the University of Sussex, where she studied Computer Systems Engineering, before building a career in finance and technology. Her rise through Conservative ranks was meteoric: from MP in 2017 to Cabinet positions under Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.
Notably, Badenoch has distanced herself from her Nigerian heritage in recent years. She no longer identifies as Nigerian and has not renewed her Nigerian passport since the early 2000s. “I’m Nigerian through ancestry, not by identity,” she explained, emphasising that Britain is now her home.
The Historic Leadership Victory That Changed Everything
On 2 November 2024, Badenoch defeated Robert Jenrick to become Conservative Party leader, securing 53,806 votes to Jenrick’s 41,000. Her victory represented a historic milestone – the first Black woman to lead any major UK political party and the fourth woman to lead the Conservatives after Margaret Thatcher, Theresa May, and Liz Truss.
However, the celebration was short-lived. The party she inherited was in existential crisis, having lost 251 seats in the 2024 general election, reducing their parliamentary presence from 372 to just 121 MPs. The scale of defeat was unprecedented, representing the party’s worst electoral performance in modern history.
Badenoch acknowledged the challenge, describing the Conservatives as a “distressed asset” requiring fundamental transformation. Her acceptance speech struck a tone of renewal: “It is time to be honest, uphold our values, strategise for our future, reset our political discourse, and provide our party and our nation with the fresh start they deserve”.
The Reform UK Threat: An Existential Crisis
The most immediate challenge facing Badenoch is not Labour’s government but Reform UK’s insurgency from the right. The 2025 local elections delivered a devastating blow to Conservative hopes, with Reform UK winning 677 seats and taking control of ten councils. The Conservatives managed just 319 seats, losing 674 councillors in what analysts described as a historic fragmentation of British politics.
Reform UK’s projected national vote share reached 30 per cent, compared to Labour’s 20 per cent and the Conservatives’ meagre 15 per cent. The psychological impact was profound – Reform had achieved what UKIP never managed: becoming the largest party in local government outside of traditional two-party dominance.
Senior Conservative MPs now privately acknowledge the existential threat. One MP whose majority collapsed from 18,000 to 1,500 told Sky News that a deal with Reform UK was essential to prevent Labour clinging to power. Another veteran predicted that Essex, traditionally Conservative, could see the party lose every seat, including Badenoch’s North West Essex constituency.
Badenoch’s Policy Blitz: Immigration, Economics, and Housing
Facing declining poll numbers – currently at 17 per cent compared to Reform’s 27 per cent – Badenoch has launched an aggressive policy offensive designed to reclaim right-wing voters. Her approach combines Trump-style immigration policies with traditional Conservative economic messaging.
The centrepiece of her immigration strategy involves deporting 150,000 people annually, totalling 750,000 over five years. This would require establishing a new “Removals Force” modelled on US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, with an annual budget of £1.6 billion. The policy includes withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights, a move that would end 75 years of UK membership.
Badenoch’s economic programme centres on her new “golden rule”: half of all government savings would reduce the deficit, whilst the other half would fund tax cuts or growth measures. The Conservatives claim they can identify £47 billion in annual savings through welfare cuts, civil service reductions, and foreign aid restrictions.
However, the most eye-catching announcement came at the Manchester conference: abolishing stamp duty entirely on primary residences. This policy, costing an estimated £9 billion annually, would eliminate a tax that raised £13.9 billion last year. Badenoch argued that “stamp duty is a bad tax” that prevents social mobility.
The Challenge of Credibility
Economists have offered mixed reactions to Badenoch’s proposals. The Institute for Fiscal Studies welcomed stamp duty abolition but questioned the funding mechanism. Paul Johnson, the organisation’s former director, supported scrapping the tax but warned it should be accompanied by higher council taxes on expensive properties.
Former government economist Jonathan Portes was more critical, describing Badenoch’s spending cuts package as “laughable” and accusing her of having “no remotely credible plan” to fund promised tax reductions. The challenge reflects broader scepticism about Conservative economic competence following the Liz Truss mini-budget disaster.
Badenoch’s personal approval ratings compound the credibility problem. Only 20 per cent of the public believe she has performed well as Conservative leader, whilst 45 per cent consider her performance poor. Even among Conservative voters, just 49 per cent give favourable reviews, with 33 per cent considering her a bad leader.
Perhaps most damaging, only 11 per cent of Britons can imagine Badenoch as Prime Minister, including just 22 per cent of Conservative supporters. This compares unfavourably with Keir Starmer’s 40 per cent approval rating before becoming Prime Minister.
Internal Party Tensions and Leadership Speculation
The Manchester conference exposed deep Conservative divisions about future direction. Half of party members believe Badenoch should not lead the Conservatives into the next general election, according to YouGov polling. Even among her 2024 supporters, 30 per cent want her replaced before the next election.
Robert Jenrick, her leadership rival, has emerged as the favourite to succeed her, with 37 per cent support among members who want change. Jenrick has opened potential rifts by refusing to rule out cooperation with Reform UK, whilst Badenoch repeatedly rejects “uniting the right”.
The party’s struggles reflect broader challenges facing traditional centre-right parties across Europe. Unlike Reform UK’s populist appeal, Conservative messaging emphasises fiscal responsibility and gradual reform – themes that may not resonate with voters seeking dramatic change.
The Battle for Conservative Survival
Badenoch’s strategy represents a calculated gamble that the Conservative Party can out-compete Reform UK on immigration whilst maintaining economic credibility. Her hardline positions on deportations and ECHR withdrawal mirror policies that helped Donald Trump win American elections, though the UK context differs significantly.
The 2025 local elections provided a sobering reality check. Reform UK achieved unprecedented success despite having virtually no local government experience, suggesting voter dissatisfaction runs deeper than policy disagreements. Traditional Conservative strongholds like Kent saw the party reduced from 62 seats to just five, whilst Reform claimed 57.
Labour strategists now frame future elections as contests between their party and Reform UK, potentially marginalising Conservative relevance. If this narrative takes hold, Badenoch’s task becomes exponentially harder – fighting battles on multiple fronts whilst lacking the resources and unity that sustained Conservative dominance for decades.
Looking Ahead: The 2029 General Election
The next general election remains up to four years away, providing Badenoch considerable time to rebuild Conservative fortunes. However, polling suggests that if an election were held tomorrow, the party would win just 45 seats, potentially relegating them to fourth-party status behind Reform UK, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats.
Badenoch’s response emphasises patience and long-term planning. “The election is not tomorrow,” she told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. “Nothing good comes quickly or fast. And it will pay off”. Her allies argue that opposition periods traditionally favour renewal, citing Labour’s recovery from 2019 defeat.
Yet historical precedents offer limited comfort. The Conservative Party faces unprecedented competition from the right whilst lacking clear ideological distinctiveness from Reform UK on key voter concerns like immigration. Badenoch’s challenge involves rebuilding credibility without alienating the centrist voters who abandoned the party in 2024.
The Wider Implications for British Politics
Badenoch’s leadership represents more than Conservative Party renewal – it symbolises Britain’s evolving political landscape. Her rise demonstrates democratic possibilities whilst her struggles reflect systemic challenges facing traditional parties in populist times.
The fragmentation evident in 2025 local elections suggests British politics may be experiencing permanent realignment rather than temporary turbulence. Reform UK’s success indicates significant voter appetite for alternatives to established parties, particularly on immigration and cultural issues.
For Badenoch, success requires threading an impossibly narrow needle: appealing to Reform UK voters without abandoning Conservative principles, rebuilding economic credibility whilst promising tax cuts, and uniting a fractured party whilst facing external threats from multiple directions.
Similar to how England cricket faces transitions with veteran players like Chris Woakes contemplating retirement, British politics is experiencing generational change. Traditional certainties no longer apply, whether in aviation safety protocols following incidents like British Airways flight BA286 or broadcasting landscapes as the BBC adapts its Formula One coverage. Even cruise industry dynamics are shifting as operators like Marella adapt to changing market conditions, reflecting broader economic uncertainties.
Conclusion: A Historic Leader in Perilous Times
Kemi Badenoch’s leadership represents a watershed moment in British politics. As the first Black woman to lead a major UK political party, she embodies possibilities that previous generations could hardly imagine. Yet she faces challenges that would test any leader: a fractured party, existential threats from populist rivals, and an electorate seemingly determined to punish traditional politics.
Her policy announcements at Manchester – from stamp duty abolition to mass deportations – demonstrate willingness to take risks in pursuit of political survival. Whether these gambles succeed will determine not just Badenoch’s future but the Conservative Party’s continued relevance in British politics.
The stakes could not be higher. Failure might consign the party of Churchill, Thatcher, and Cameron to historical footnotes, whilst success could restore Conservative dominance for another generation. For Badenoch, the choice is stark: transform or perish.
As Britain grapples with economic uncertainty, immigration concerns, and political fragmentation, Badenoch’s leadership test reflects broader questions about democratic resilience in challenging times. Her response will shape not just Conservative fortunes but the character of British politics for years to come.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Who is Kemi Badenoch and what makes her leadership historic?
Kemi Badenoch is the leader of the UK’s Conservative Party and the first Black woman to lead any major British political party. Born in Wimbledon to Nigerian parents in 1980, she became Conservative leader in November 2024 after defeating Robert Jenrick in a membership vote.
2. What are Badenoch’s main policy proposals?
Badenoch has announced plans to deport 150,000 people annually, withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, abolish stamp duty on primary residences, and implement a “golden rule” where half of government savings reduce the deficit and half fund tax cuts.
3. Why is Reform UK considered a threat to the Conservative Party?
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is currently polling at 27% compared to the Conservatives’ 17%. In the 2025 local elections, Reform won 677 seats and took control of ten councils, demonstrating their ability to attract traditional Conservative voters.
4. What challenges does Badenoch face as Conservative leader?
Badenoch faces multiple challenges including poor polling numbers, internal party divisions, competition from Reform UK, and questions about her leadership credibility. Half of Conservative members believe she should not lead the party into the next general election.
5. When is the next general election and what are Conservative prospects?
The next general election must be held by 2029, though it could occur earlier. Current polling suggests the Conservatives would win just 45 seats if an election were held today, potentially making them the fourth-largest party behind Reform UK, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats.
For official and reliable information, visit the UK Government Official Site and BBC News.